Custom Category query with multiple loops

Here is my code: https://pastebin.com/mkvhYwXU

What is not working is that there are 15 posts in this category and the combined loops are only returning 14 with the first one after the thumbnail output getting lost somewhere in the shuffle.

Why is this code eating one of my posts?

@alchymyth? You helped me out with a related question at this post:
https://www.ads-software.com/support/topic/do_shortcode-on-closing-isnt-working

Are you out there with more advice? ??