[Plugin: WordPress.com Stats] shows unaccounted and inflated data

Hello guys,
I have had my blog (2.9) working for over 4 months now with the WordPress Stats plugin. The data collected shows a steady trend for hits per day. I’ve had 2 peaks of abnormal traffic in which it increased in about 900%. However this increase was supported by an increase in referers to my site. Last week I had to install a second version of my blog (identical copy but running wp 3.0) under a new domain due to legal issues with my first blog’s name. Both have been working correctly and both are using the same api key for wordpress stats. I thought this could be a good thing because I could keep the traffic data collected on my first blog.For the past week everything has worked correctly but today I noticed a very large peak in traffic so very excited I turned over to see the referers and see who linked to my site but to my surprise there where only 3 referers each one sending at most 5 visitors…. I know this could be explained with direct traffic. The thing is that I find it very difficult for a site like mine that has no advertising to increase direct traffic count by thousands in one day. Anyone care to shed some light on this subject? thanks a lot